Genius Sports Enters Prediction Markets with Polymarket, Kalshi

Kyle Kevin

iGaming Writer

Fact Checked

Genius Sports has entered the prediction market arena with back-to-back deals with Polymarket and Kalshi. The partnerships supply official data, live streaming, and integrity services to both CFTC-regulated platforms.

Genius Sports has entered the prediction market infrastructure race with deals on consecutive days. Tuesday brought Polymarket. Wednesday brought Kalshi. Both are CFTC-regulated platforms. Both will receive official data, integrity services, and marketing support from Genius. The Polymarket deal includes exclusive US live streaming rights for Italy’s Serie A. The Kalshi agreement covers five major soccer leagues: the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, Argentine Primera División, and Ligue 1. Both deals are effective immediately. They apply to eligible US users. The moves put Genius in direct competition with Sportradar, which signed multi-year prediction market partnerships with both operators in June. Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl called the sector a “natural adjacency” on his Q2 earnings call this week. He expects it to expand the US total addressable market by opening new states and attracting new players. Genius is making the same bet. Its entry is backed by the $1.2 billion Legend acquisition closed earlier this year. That deal gives Genius a media network to market prediction market products directly to fans. The race for prediction market data supremacy is now a two-horse contest.

The Polymarket Partnership

Genius Sports announced its Polymarket deal on Tuesday. The scope is broad. Official real-time event data. League integrity services. Exclusive US live streaming rights for selected competitions, notably Serie A. Digital marketing support through Genius’s Legend media properties.

The Serie A streaming angle is novel. Genius will connect live match broadcasts to “related real-time event contracts.” Fans watching a game can trade on outcomes as they unfold. That integration of content and wagering is the future of sports engagement. Polymarket gets the data and streams. Genius gets distribution and integrity credibility.

Polymarket president Ari Borod called live streaming, official data, and integrity infrastructure “foundational” to the product. Sean Conroy, Genius EVP of rights and partnerships, echoed the point. “Robust integrity safeguards are not simply optional; they are foundational,” he said. The messaging targets leagues. Leagues want their competitions protected. Genius and Polymarket are pitching a regulated, monitored environment that offshore platforms cannot match.

The Kalshi Deal

The Kalshi partnership, announced Wednesday, covers a wider league portfolio. Real-time data flows for the Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, Argentine Primera División, and Ligue 1. Marketing and media outreach are included. So are integrity services and participation in Genius’s information-sharing frameworks.

Kalshi head of sports partnerships Adam Barrick cited Genius’s “proven track record in providing the highest quality sports data.” The deal gives Kalshi coverage across Europe and the Americas. Liga MX and Argentine Primera División are particularly valuable for US Hispanic audiences. The Premier League and Ligue 1 add global reach.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC oversight. That regulatory status is their shield against state gambling laws. It is also their constraint. They can only offer contracts on events with clear, verifiable outcomes. Official data is essential. Without it, settlement disputes arise. Genius provides that certainty.

Integrity and Data as Competitive Moats

The prediction market sector is growing fast. H2 Gambling Capital estimated it reached roughly 27% of comparable US sports betting activity during the World Cup. With growth comes scrutiny. Leagues want assurance that their competitions are not being manipulated. Regulators want transparency. Data providers are the bridge.

Genius’s integrity services include real-time monitoring of trading patterns. Polymarket highlighted this feature specifically. The platform can identify irregular activity as it happens. That capability is a selling point to leagues nervous about prediction markets. It is also a regulatory advantage. CFTC oversight demands fair and orderly markets. Data-driven surveillance helps meet that standard.

The competitive moat is exclusivity. Genius has official data partnerships with the leagues it covers. Competitors cannot simply buy the same feeds. They must negotiate their own deals. That takes time and money. Genius has already done the work. Porting those relationships to prediction markets is low marginal cost.

The Sportradar Rivalry Heats Up

Sportradar beat Genius to the prediction market punch. It signed multi-year deals with Kalshi and Polymarket in June. Those agreements cover official data, live odds, streaming, integrity services, fan engagement tools, and customer acquisition products. Sportradar also gained the right to work with exchanges’ partners, including brokers and market makers.

Koerl is bullish. He told analysts that prediction markets expand the US total addressable market. “With our premium content, global scale and unmatched product portfolio and capabilities, predictions market is a natural adjacency,” he said. Sportradar expects “tens of millions” of euros from the sector this year and significantly more in 2027.

Genius is now chasing that revenue. The two companies have competed for sportsbook data deals for years. Prediction markets are the new battlefield. Both have secured partnerships with the same two exchanges. The question is which can deliver more value. Sportradar has scale and an earlier start. Genius has the Legend media network and Serie A streaming exclusivity. The market is large enough for both. It may not be large enough for both to thrive.

Legend Acquisition and Media Synergies

Genius closed its Legend acquisition earlier this year for $1.2 billion. The deal included $900 million at close and an earnout of up to $300 million. Legend is a gaming media technology platform. It owns properties that reach sports fans directly. That reach is now being deployed for prediction market marketing.

The Polymarket deal explicitly references Legend media properties for digital marketing. Genius can promote prediction market contracts to fans already consuming its content. That funnel is unique. Sportradar has no equivalent media network. It must rely on exchange operators to handle customer acquisition.

The synergy is strategic. Data feeds inform content. Content drives engagement. Engagement converts to prediction market participation. Genius owns the full stack. Whether that translates to higher revenue per user than Sportradar’s pure data play is the test. The $1.2 billion price tag for Legend says Genius believes it will.

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