The Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi has pushed Supreme Court review odds to 64%. Meanwhile, college football prediction markets are surging, DraftKings Combos are scaling fast, and Donald Trump Jr. is lobbying Republican AGs behind closed doors.
The Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are gambling, creating a circuit split with the Third Circuit. Polymarket odds of Supreme Court review jumped to 64%. College football prediction market volume surged 22x year-on-year, while DraftKings Predictions Combos spiked 277% in a single day.
- The Ninth Circuit Ruling and SCOTUS Odds
- College Football Prediction Markets Explode
- DraftKings Combos Hit $10M in a Day
- Trump Jr. Lobbies Republican AGs on Prediction Markets
The Ninth Circuit’s unanimous ruling against Kalshi has reshaped the prediction market landscape in a single afternoon. The 3-0 decision on 28 August found that sports event contracts are gambling, not federally protected swaps. That creates a direct circuit split with the Third Circuit’s April ruling in Kalshi’s favour. Polymarket traders reacted immediately. The odds of Supreme Court review by 31 December jumped from roughly 30% to 64%, with more than $976,000 in trading volume on the contract alone. New Jersey faces a 3 September deadline to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari. If it does not, the split remains unresolved and prediction markets will operate under a patchwork of conflicting federal rulings. The legal drama is only half the story. On the trading floor, prediction markets are booming. College football season opened on 27 August with lower-division matchups. By Labour Day weekend, all 138 FBS teams will have played. Prediction market volume on college football has surged to between $20 million and $30 million, a 22x increase from the same period last year. Kalshi national championship futures alone have cleared $17.5 million. DraftKings Predictions is pushing hard into the space. Its new Combos product, which bundles multiple event contracts into a single position, recorded $10 million in notional volume on 27 August, up 277% from the prior day. More than 600,000 customers have used Combos since launch. The company is running ads in California, Texas, and Florida, three of the largest states without legal online sports betting. The political layer is equally active. Donald Trump Jr., a Kalshi advisor with a $300,000 equity stake now worth millions, lobbied Republican attorneys general at a closed-door event in New Orleans in March. He told them states were being misled by the gambling lobby. The president himself has said little on the topic, remarking in April that “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”
The Ninth Circuit Ruling and SCOTUS Odds
The Ninth Circuit’s 50-page opinion was authored by Judge Ryan D. Nelson, a Trump appointee. All three judges on the panel were Trump appointees. The ruling was unanimous and harsh. Nelson called Kalshi’s argument “disingenuous” and invoked Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet: “To call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” The substance of Kalshi’s contracts is sports gambling, regardless of what they are called. The American Gaming Association cheered the decision. CEO Bill Miller called it “a significant win for consumer protections and taxpayers” and “a big loss for Kalshi and other backdoor sports gambling operations.” The AGA’s running calculator estimates states have lost more than $1 billion in sports betting tax revenue to prediction markets. Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said the ruling “completely vindicates what we have been saying all along: This is sports betting and needs to be properly regulated by the state.” Nevada has sought fines of $120,000 per day against Kalshi for failing to implement geofencing. The CFTC has taken the opposite position. Chair Michael Selig told CNBC in March that state efforts to restrict prediction markets amount to an attempt to “effectively nullify federal law.” Selig vowed the CFTC will “continue to defend its jurisdiction.” The commission has proposed new rules that would explicitly allow prediction markets to offer sports contracts, with restrictions on player injuries, official rulings, fights, youth events, and certain in-game actions. However, Nelson’s opinion focused on the CEA’s statutory text, not just current regulations. Even if the CFTC changes its rules, the court found the underlying statute does not cover sports event contracts. That means a regulatory fix may not be enough. The circuit split is what drives the Supreme Court math. The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 in April that the CEA preempts New Jersey gambling law. The Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 the opposite way. Polymarket traders now price SCOTUS review at 64%, up from roughly 30%. The contract has drawn nearly $1 million in volume. New Jersey must decide by 3 September whether to petition. If it does, the case could be heard in the 2026-2027 term with a decision by mid-2027. For ongoing coverage of prediction markets litigation, AGBrief tracks the sector closely.
College Football Prediction Markets Explode
The 2026-27 NCAA college football season kicked off on 27 August with FCS matchups. Eight more games follow on Saturday, headlined by North Carolina versus TCU in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin. By Labour Day weekend, all 138 FBS teams will have played at least once. Prediction markets have responded with explosive volume. College football trading volume has surged to between $20 million and $30 million, a 22x increase from the same period last year. Kalshi national championship futures alone have cleared $17.5 million. Ohio State and Notre Dame are co-favourites at 13% on Kalshi. Texas, led by Heisman candidate Arch Manning, sits third at 12%. Oregon and defending champion Indiana follow. The Heisman Trophy market is equally active. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr leads at 12%, just ahead of Miami’s Darian Mensah and Texas’s Arch Manning at 9% each. On Polymarket, Notre Dame is the 19% favourite to win the title, ahead of Ohio State and Texas at 13% each. The Buckeyes travel to Austin to face the Longhorns on 12 September. That game alone will drive significant prediction market volume. Las Vegas will host the college football national championship for the first time ever in January 2027. The road to Sin City is now a trading opportunity. Prediction markets have turned every game, every spread, and every player prop into a contract. The volume numbers suggest traders are treating college football the same way they treated the World Cup. That is a structural shift, not a seasonal spike.
DraftKings Combos Hit $10M in a Day
DraftKings Predictions is scaling its Combos product aggressively. The feature bundles multiple event contracts into a single position, mimicking parlays on traditional sportsbooks. On 27 August, Combos notional volume surged to $10 million, up 277% from the prior day’s $170,600. The spike coincided with the college football kickoff. Combos now represent a growing share of DraftKings Predictions’ total daily volume. More than 600,000 customers have used the feature since launch. DraftKings is also running advertisements in California, Texas, and Florida. Those three states represent the largest populations without legal online sports betting. Prediction markets are the only legal way to bet on sports in those jurisdictions. DraftKings is positioning Combos as the parlay alternative for residents of those states. The product is CFTC-regulated, which gives it a legal shield that offshore sportsbooks lack. However, the Ninth Circuit ruling complicates that narrative. If the Supreme Court ultimately sides with the states, DraftKings Predictions could face the same regulatory pressure as Kalshi and Polymarket. For now, the company is pushing forward. The $10 million single-day Combos volume is a new high. It signals that prediction market parlays have found product-market fit. Whether that growth continues depends on the legal environment. A Supreme Court ruling against prediction markets would force DraftKings to rethink its entire Predictions strategy.
Trump Jr. Lobbies Republican AGs on Prediction Markets
Donald Trump Jr. has become one of the most visible advocates for prediction markets. He joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor shortly after his father’s second term began. The stake was worth $300,000 at the time. With Kalshi valued at $22 billion after a $1 billion funding round this spring, those holdings are now worth millions. Trump Jr. has also received a stake in Polymarket through 1789 Capital, where he serves as a partner. In March, he addressed the Republican Attorneys General Association’s winter meeting in New Orleans. During a closed-door fireside chat with Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, Trump Jr. spoke at length on the legal battle surrounding prediction markets. According to the New York Times, he suggested states were being misled by the gambling lobby, which has a “vested interest” in protecting its business. He maintained that prediction markets already have strong federal oversight and that state AGs should back off. A spokesman for Trump Jr. told the Times that he “does not interface with the federal government on behalf of any company he invests in or advises.” President Trump has said little on the topic. When asked about prediction markets at a White House press briefing in April, he responded: “The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” The comment was cryptic. It did not signal support or opposition. However, the administration has generally backed CFTC authority over prediction markets. The Ninth Circuit ruling, authored by three Trump appointees, complicates that alignment. Judicial interpretation and political preference are diverging. The lobbying effort matters because state attorneys general are the primary enforcers against prediction markets. If Republican AGs follow Trump Jr.’s lead and stop pursuing Kalshi, the legal pressure eases. If they ignore him and continue enforcement, the patchwork of state actions deepens. The New York Times published its 2,600-word feature on Trump Jr.’s prediction market activities on 27 August. The timing, one day before the Ninth Circuit ruling, was coincidental. The impact was not. The article put the political dimension of the prediction market fight into public view just as the legal dimension intensified.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Ninth Circuit rule on Kalshi?
The Ninth Circuit ruled unanimously that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are gambling, not federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The 3-0 decision clears Nevada to enforce state gambling laws and creates a circuit split with the Third Circuit’s April ruling in Kalshi’s favour.
What are the odds of Supreme Court review?
Polymarket traders price the odds of SCOTUS granting certiorari by 31 December at 64%, up from roughly 30% before the ruling. New Jersey must decide by 3 September whether to petition the Supreme Court.
How much volume are college football prediction markets doing?
College football prediction market volume has surged to $20-30 million, a 22x increase from the same period last year. Kalshi national championship futures alone have cleared $17.5 million, with Notre Dame and Ohio State as co-favourites at 13%.
What are DraftKings Combos?
DraftKings Combos bundle multiple event contracts into a single prediction-market position, mimicking sportsbook parlays. The product recorded $10 million in notional volume on 27 August, up 277% in one day. More than 600,000 customers have used Combos since launch.
What is Donald Trump Jr.’s role in prediction markets?
Trump Jr. is a Kalshi advisor with a $300,000 equity stake now worth millions. He also holds a Polymarket stake through 1789 Capital. In March, he lobbied Republican AGs in New Orleans to back off enforcement, arguing prediction markets have adequate federal oversight.
Who are the Heisman Trophy favourites on prediction markets?
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr leads at 12%, followed by Miami’s Darian Mensah and Texas’s Arch Manning at 9% each. On the national championship market, Notre Dame is the 19% favourite at Polymarket, with Ohio State and Texas at 13%.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
