Sportradar Q2: Prediction Markets to Drive Tens of Millions

Kyle Kevin

iGaming Writer

Fact Checked

Sportradar posted 19% revenue growth in Q2 but cut full-year guidance and missed profit targets. Prediction markets are the new bet, with CEO Carsten Koerl forecasting tens of millions in revenue this year.

Sportradar grew revenue 19% in Q2. It also cut its full-year outlook. The stock dropped 19% in premarket trading. That contradiction defines the quarter. Revenue hit €377.8 million, short of the €381.7 million consensus. Betting Technology & Solutions drove the number at €315.4 million, up 21%. Sports Content, Technology & Services added €62.4 million, up 9%. The net loss was €4 million against a €49 million profit a year earlier. Analysts had expected a profit. CFO Craig Felenstein blamed three factors: US sportsbook market moderation, tax and regulatory headwinds, and delayed prediction market deals. The last of those is the story. Sportradar has bet its next growth phase on prediction markets. CEO Carsten Koerl said the sector will generate “tens of millions” of euros this year and “significantly higher” revenue in 2027. Deals with Kalshi and Polymarket are signed. More are coming. However, league negotiations took longer than expected. That delay cost revenue in Q2 and forced the guidance cut.

Q2 Numbers: Growth Meets a Guidance Cut

Sportradar’s Q2 revenue of €377.8 million beat last year’s figure by 19%. It missed analyst expectations by €3.9 million. The miss is small in percentage terms. The market reaction was not. Shares fell nearly 19% before the opening bell.

The net loss of €4 million reversed a €49 million year-ago profit. Unrealized foreign exchange losses on US dollar sports rights and restructuring costs were the primary drivers. Adjusted EBITDA held at €76.3 million, up 19%, with a 20.2% margin. First-half free cash flow reached €103 million, up 23%. The company returned $140 million to shareholders through buybacks during the quarter. Total repurchases since programme inception stand at $422 million.

The guidance cut was the real wound. Full-year constant-currency revenue growth dropped to 19-21% from 23-25%. The new revenue range is €1.518 billion to €1.533 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to €360-368 million. Felenstein cited three causes: US sportsbook market moderation, operator tax and regulatory pressure, and prediction market deal delays. The first two are macro. The third is self-inflicted. Sportradar needed league approval to supply data to prediction markets. Those approvals came slower than planned.

Prediction Markets: The New Revenue Engine

Sportradar has positioned itself as the infrastructure backbone for prediction markets. The Kalshi and Polymarket deals are multi-year. Sportradar supplies official data, live odds, streaming, integrity services, fan engagement tools, and customer acquisition products. The agreements also let Sportradar work with exchanges’ partners, including brokers and market makers. That extends the addressable market beyond the exchanges themselves.

Koerl said league negotiations were the bottleneck. “It was, for us in 2026, a lot of work to negotiate the deals, but also to convince our league partners that they’re going into this,” he told analysts. A few leagues remain unconvinced. The framework is not yet universal. However, Koerl expressed optimism. The deals that are signed are generating revenue now.

Cannibalization is the fear haunting the sector. The American Gaming Association and tribal groups argue prediction markets divert betting from licensed sportsbooks. Koerl dismissed the concern. “According to our clients, there is very limited cannibalization,” he said. He pointed to geography as the explanation. Most prediction market volume comes from California, Texas, and Florida, states with limited or no legal sports betting. The customers are new, not stolen.

Latency is the technical battleground. Sportradar is building ultra-low-latency data feeds for market makers. A dedicated feed will launch alongside the US Open and the NBA season. Deep data and speed are “key and center” to the product, Koerl said. Each prediction market deal carries different economics. Felenstein said they will match or exceed sportsbook partnership margins. That is a bold claim. Sportsbook data deals are Sportradar’s cash cow. If prediction markets match them, the growth case is real.

PlayRadar and iGaming Expansion

PlayRadar is Sportradar’s iGaming platform. It merges sports betting with online casino products. The pitch is cross-sell. Koerl said dual-product customers generate up to five times the lifetime value of sports-only users. That multiple justifies the development cost.

The platform runs 24/7. Live sports events pair with complementary casino games. Historical sports games built around iconic moments fill the gaps. PlayRadar is live in the UK and Ontario. Q3 will bring launches in Michigan, New Jersey, and Alberta. The Alberta timing is opportunistic. The province’s regulated online gambling market opened in July 2026. Sportradar is moving fast to establish presence.

Koerl plans to showcase PlayRadar at the SBC Summit in Lisbon this September. That is a high-visibility debut. The platform competes with established iGaming aggregators. Sportradar’s advantage is its data and streaming rights. No competitor can match the live sports integration. Whether that translates to operator adoption is the open question.

Short-Seller Fallout and Compliance

Short-seller allegations dominated the Q1 call. Koerl addressed them briefly in Q2. The Audit Committee, assisted by external counsel Paul Hastings, reviewed the claims. It concluded they presented “a misleading narrative.” That is a strong rebuttal. It does not end the story.

Koerl pointed to regulatory approvals and major rights renewals as proof of business health. Wimbledon and the German DFB-Pokal both extended with Sportradar. Regulators in multiple jurisdictions renewed or granted new licences. Those are objective signals. They do not prove the short-seller wrong. They do suggest the market has moved on.

The compliance framework remains a selling point. Sportradar pitches integrity services to leagues and regulators. Any weakness there would undermine the entire business model. The company maintains it is rigorous. The Q2 results do not contradict that. The 19% revenue growth and 20.2% EBITDA margin are healthy metrics for a company under regulatory scrutiny.

Frequently Asked Questions

This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.