Tax revenue nearly doubled. Illegal sites still hold about half the market. Brazil’s operators say the second number explains why they should not be squeezed on the first.
Brazilian betting tax revenue rose to BRL5.89 billion in the first five months of 2026, from BRL3.1 billion a year earlier. However, illegal betting still accounts for roughly half illegal betting the market, according to operators’ association ANJL. Its president argues tax rises or tighter advertising rules would push more players toward unlicensed sites.
- The Revenue Numbers
- Why Illegal Betting Remains the Core Problem
- The Advertising Fight
- Illegal Betting and the Channelization Trade-Off
Brazil’s regulated betting market delivered BRL5.89 billion in tax revenue across the first five months of 2026. That compares with BRL3.1 billion, around US$620 million, in the illegal betting same period of 2025. However, illegal betting still holds close to half the market, according to ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge. He leads Brazil’s national association of games and lotteries, which represents licensed operators. Lemos Jorge told iGaming Business the fight against unlicensed sites must continue. He also warned that higher taxes or illegal betting tighter advertising limits could expand the illegal share. That warning reflects his members’ commercial position as much as a market forecast.
The Revenue Numbers
The tax figure is the piece’s firmest data point. Federal Revenue Service data show collections rising from BRL3.1 billion to BRL5.89 billion year-on-year across January to May. That is a near doubling in twelve months. According to Lemos Jorge, the jump demonstrates the regulated sector’s economic contribution. Full first-half figures have not been published yet. June numbers are also outstanding, and he expects the World Cup to lift them materially. It was the first World Cup played with Brazil’s market already regulated. So the tournament tested illegal betting the framework at scale for the first time. Licensed operators leaned into physical activations during the competition. Those included partnerships with bars and illegal betting restaurants and fan kit distribution. Lemos Jorge presented these as brands building experiences illegal betting beyond the screen. However, the same activations drew criticism from those concerned about gambling’s visibility during a mass-audience event. Brazil’s World Cup advertising scrutiny features in our report on the Brazilian probe into World Cup betting ads.
Why Illegal Betting Remains the Core Problem
Roughly half of Brazil’s online betting still runs outside the licensed system. Lemos Jorge confirmed that share persists, while noting the percentage has fallen. He said the fight cannot slacken. According to him, the government now recognises the scale of the problem. ANJL runs a monitoring laboratory in partnership with Anatel, Brazil’s telecoms agency, and the SPA. That facility illegal betting handles monitoring, intelligence gathering, and technical analysis of the betting market. So the association has built enforcement infrastructure illegal betting alongside the state, not merely lobbied for it. The illegal-market problem is genuine and well documented across regulated markets. Unlicensed sites pay no tax, apply no verified age checks, and offer players no recourse in a dispute. However, the share estimate itself comes from the licensed operators’ association. Independent measurement of illegal market share is difficult everywhere, since the activity is by definition unrecorded. Comparable measurement challenges appear in our report on the the Dutch channelization gap. Trade coverage of Brazilian market policy, including AGBrief, tracks these debates.
The Advertising Fight
Two advertising battles are running at once. Lemos Jorge welcomed the federal government’s new advertising rules, calling them added protection for bettors and operators. He said mandatory new elements in adverts should make the market safer. However, he opposed municipal advertising bans in public spaces. Rio de Janeiro and João Pessoa have implemented such bans, and São Paulo and other cities are considering them. According to Lemos Jorge, Article 22 of Brazil’s Constitution reserves commercial advertising legislation to the federal government. He argued that illegal betting divergent rules across 26 states and more than 5,000 municipalities would create legal uncertainty. That constitutional question is genuinely contested rather than settled. Municipalities generally do hold powers over urban space and outdoor signage, and consumer protection is a shared competence in Brazilian law. So the illegal betting jurisdictional line between federal advertising rules and local control of public space is a live legal argument, not an obvious error by city governments. Courts will likely decide it. He also noted that a week before the World Cup, the SPA issued Technical Note No. 3620, setting specific communication and marketing rules. Any breaches, he said, fall to Conar, the SPA, and potentially Senacon to address. Comparable advertising restrictions feature illegal betting in our report on the UK’s gambling sponsorship ban.
Illegal Betting and the Channelization Trade-Off
The association’s core policy argument links the two issues directly. According to Lemos Jorge, the illegal share will grow if measures undermine the licensed sector’s viability. He named tax increases and stricter advertising restrictions as the specific risks. That is the channelization argument, and it carries genuine weight in regulatory illegal betting design. A licensed market that cannot compete on product or visibility loses players to one that faces no rules at all. The Dutch experience shows how quickly that gap can open. However, ANJL represents licensed operators whose costs rise under both measures. So the warning aligns precisely with its members’ commercial interests, which does illegal betting not make it wrong but does warrant weighing against independent evidence. On the self-regulation question, Lemos Jorge pointed to Annex X, developed jointly by ANJL, the IBJR, and advertising self-regulator Conar. He described the framework as robust and clear. He also argued that scrutiny falls disproportionately on betting compared with other sectors, citing alcohol advertising as a parallel. Critics would respond that the comparison cuts both ways, since alcohol advertising also faces mounting restriction. Political pressure is expected to intensify through Brazil’s election season. Brazilian industry alignment features illegal betting in our report on DigiPlus joining Brazil’s main betting industry body.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much tax has Brazilian betting generated in 2026?
Federal Revenue Service data show BRL5.89 billion collected from January through May 2026, up from BRL3.1 billion in the same period of 2025. Full first-half figures have not been released. June results are expected to reflect World Cup activity, the first tournament played with Brazil’s market fully regulated.
How large is Brazil’s illegal betting market?
Operators’ association ANJL says unlicensed sites still account for roughly half of Brazil’s online betting market, though the share has fallen. That estimate comes from the licensed industry itself. Measuring illegal market share is inherently illegal betting difficult, since the activity is unrecorded, so independent verification is limited.
Why does the industry oppose municipal advertising bans?
ANJL argues Brazil’s Constitution reserves commercial advertising legislation to the federal government, and that differing rules across thousands of municipalities would create legal uncertainty. However, municipalities generally hold powers over public space and signage, so the jurisdictional question is contested and likely to be settled by the courts.
What is the channelization argument?
It holds that if licensed operators face heavy taxes or restrictions, players migrate to unlicensed sites offering no protections. There is real evidence this occurs when regulated products become uncompetitive. However, the argument is also made by operators who benefit from lighter rules, so specific evidence matters more than the general principle.
Who regulates betting advertising in Brazil?
The Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, under the Ministry of Finance, oversees licensed operators under Law 14.790/2023 and its ordinances. It issued specific World Cup communication rules via Technical Note No. 3620. Advertising self-regulator Conar and consumer agency Senacon also handle complaints and potential breaches.
How is Brazil tackling unlicensed betting sites?
ANJL operates a monitoring laboratory alongside telecoms agency Anatel and the SPA, handling monitoring, intelligence gathering, and technical analysis of the market. The association says the government has recognised the scale of the problem, and reports the illegal share has declined, though it remains around half the market.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
