Moody’s sees Asia gaming revenue growing 5-6%, but Macau leads while Southeast Asia gaming revenue slows. Fuel prices are the dividing line.
Moody’s expects Asia gaming revenue to grow around 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months. However, growth will vary by market. Macau should lead with 6% GGR growth in 2026, while Southeast Asia slows to low single digits, largely due to its greater exposure to fuel and air-travel costs.
- Moody’s Asia Gaming Revenue Forecast
- Why Macau Leads and Southeast Asia Lags
- Operator Outlook: Genting, NagaCorp, SJM
- Debt and Refinancing
Asia gaming revenue should grow around 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Moody’s Ratings. However, the agency warns the pace will vary sharply by market. Fuel-price sensitivity is the key divider. Moody’s set out the view in a sector in-depth report on the region’s casino industry, released on Tuesday. Macau is forecast to lead regional growth. In contrast, Southeast Asia’s expansion will moderate. According to Moody’s, uncertainty over fuel prices will hit demand less in Macau than across Southeast Asia gaming revenue. The split reflects how each market’s core customers travel.
Moody’s Asia Gaming Revenue Forecast
The regional headline is moderate, steady growth. Moody’s expects overall Asia gaming revenue to rise 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months. Macau anchors that figure. The agency forecasts Macau GGR growth of 6% in 2026, then 4% to 5% the following year. Those levels carry a clear benchmark. They imply Macau reaching around 90% of its 2019 revenue in 2026, and 90% to 95% in 2027. According to Moody’s, that recovery reflects a structurally smaller VIP segment. The agency expects VIP to stay at around 30% or less of total GGR. As a result, mass-market play now carries the market. The forecast broadly aligns with the softer-demand view in our report on the S&P Asia-Pacific casino outlook.
Why Macau Leads and Southeast Asia Lags
Travel patterns explain the split. Macau draws heavily on mainland Chinese visitors who favour short-haul domestic trips. That keeps demand resilient even when fuel prices climb. According to Moody’s, Southeast Asia gaming revenue operators are far more exposed. They rely more on air arrivals for inbound tourism. Higher energy prices feed straight into airfares and travel costs. As a result, Moody’s expects Southeast Asia gaming revenue to grow only in the low single digits across 2026 and 2027. In Macau, other tailwinds add support. Moody’s cites more rational competition, property ramp-ups, and new openings. Combined Macau EBITDA is forecast to grow 6% to 7% in 2026, reaching US$8.6 billion to US$8.7 billion. Tighter cost control and disciplined reinvestment underpin that. The recovery detail sits in our Macau casino revenue breakdown.
Operator Outlook: Genting, NagaCorp, SJM
Moody’s mapped the outlook operator by operator. Malaysia’s Genting Bhd should see adjusted EBITDA grow modestly, to MYR8.9 billion to MYR10 billion over 2026-2027, from MYR8.2 billion in 2025. That reflects the ramp-up of its New York casino, Resorts World New York City, where Genting has pledged US$5.5 billion through 2030 to win a full licence. However, its Malaysian earnings should stay broadly stable, as higher costs offset top-line growth. Genting Singapore, operator of Resorts World Sentosa, faces a dip. Moody’s sees its earnings falling about 5% to roughly SGD836 million in 2026, before recovering to around SGD880 million in 2027. Intense competition and cost pressure drive the decline. In contrast, Cambodia’s NagaCorp looks steady. Its adjusted EBITDA should hold near US$400 million annually, supported by its Phnom Penh monopoly and low-cost structure. According to Moody’s, SJM Holdings is the Macau outlier, with leverage expected to stay elevated in 2026 before satellite-table gains build. Genting Singapore’s market is covered in our Asia casino guide.
Debt and Refinancing
Leverage is improving, but unevenly. Moody’s expects debt levels to keep falling over the next 18 months, at varying paces across Macau and Southeast Asia gaming revenue. Most Macau operators should see leverage improve mainly through EBITDA growth. However, heavy capital spending, reinvestment, and shareholder returns will limit free cash flow for debt reduction. SJM is the exception, with leverage staying high near-term. In Southeast Asia gaming revenue, the Genting group’s leverage will stay elevated over 2026-2027 due to heavy capital spending. NagaCorp, by contrast, will keep very low leverage. On refinancing, Moody’s sees low risk for the Asia gaming revenue casino industry overall. Arden Consult Solid liquidity and market sentiment support that view. For Macau-focused operators, bond maturities cluster in 2028 and 2029, at around US$4.5 billion to US$5 billion a year. The heavy capital-spending theme runs through our look at Asia’s casino supply.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will Asia gaming revenue grow?
Moody’s expects Asia gaming revenue to grow around 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months. However, the pace will vary by market. Macau is forecast to lead with 6% GGR growth in 2026, while Southeast Asia slows to low single-digit growth due to fuel-price and air-travel exposure.
Why will Macau outperform Southeast Asia?
According to Moody’s, Macau relies on mainland Chinese visitors who prefer short-haul domestic travel, insulating it from fuel-price swings. Southeast Asian operators depend more on air arrivals, so higher energy prices raise travel costs and dampen demand. As a result, Macau leads while Southeast Asian gaming revenue grows only in low single digits.
What is Macau’s expected EBITDA?
Moody’s forecasts combined Macau casino EBITDA to grow 6% to 7% in 2026, reaching between US$8.6 billion and US$8.7 billion. Mid-single-digit GGR growth, more rational reinvestment spending, and tighter cost control support the increase, alongside property ramp-ups and new openings across major operators.
How will Genting perform?
Moody’s expects Genting Bhd’s adjusted EBITDA to grow to MYR8.9 billion to MYR10 billion over 2026-2027, up from MYR8.2 billion in 2025, driven by its New York casino ramp-up. However, Genting Singapore’s earnings should dip about 5% in 2026 amid competition before recovering modestly in 2027.
What is the refinancing outlook?
Moody’s sees low refinancing risk for Asia’s casino industry, supported by solid liquidity and market sentiment. For Macau-focused operators, bond maturities are concentrated in 2028 and 2029, at around US$4.5 billion to US$5 billion annually. Leverage should improve over 18 months, though at varying paces by market.
How is NagaCorp expected to fare?
According to Moody’s, NagaCorp’s adjusted EBITDA should remain around US$400 million annually, supported by steady visitation and a low-cost structure. The company holds a long-term casino monopoly in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where it operates NagaWorld, and is expected to maintain very low leverage across the forecast period.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
