Macau October GGR fell 10% to MOP21.68 billion, landing near US$2.7 billion despite the National Day Golden Week break. The result marks the fifth straight monthly decline.
Macau October GGR fell 10% to MOP21,680 million, down from MOP24,086 million in October 2025. In US dollars the month came to around US$2.7 billion. The monthly table published by DICJ on Sunday marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, with November and December still needed to hit the government’s MOP236 billion target.
- Macau October GGR Drops 10% Year on Year
- The Fifth Straight Monthly Decline
- Analysts Missed October Macau GGR
- November and December Decide the Budget Target
Macau October GGR fell 10% to MOP21,680 million, against MOP24,086 million a year earlier. That is a gap of about MOP2.4 billion, and in US dollar terms the month came to around US$2.7 billion. The monthly table published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau on Sunday makes the drop unmistakable even if the headline does not carry it.
October contained the mainland’s National Day Golden Week holiday, normally one of the busiest stretches for visitors to the city. The NBA China Games at The Venetian Macao in early October added a second reason to expect a solid month. Both were in place, and the number came in well outside the forecasts analysts had published.
Macau October GGR drops 10% year on year
The October 2025 base was unusually high. It was the strongest month of the calendar year up to that point, at just over MOP24 billion, which made a 10% decline harder to hide. The Macau October GGR comparison is not a normal year-over-year match-up: the previous October set a fresh record, and the current one did not match it.
CLSA had kept October forecast at MOP24.1 billion in early October, flat on the year, and said market estimates ranged from a 3.5% decline to 4% growth. The actual figure fell outside that band. A CICC note on October 17 saw no clear near-term inflection point in Macau October GGR or in sector profitability. Analysts had expected a recovery into the Golden Week, and Macau October GGR did not deliver it.
The fifth straight monthly decline in Macau October GGR
Growth in each of the first five months of 2026 turned to declines. January jumped 24%, then June fell 12.1%, July 8.4%, August and September each dropped 1.2%, and October finished at 10%. Only June saw a steeper annual fall of the ten months reported so far, which makes October the sharpest drop of the year rather than just another soft month.
The pattern also undercuts the recovery narrative that carried the first half of the year. AsAsGam pointed out, October 2025 was the strongest month to date, so the year-over-year comparison is being made against an exceptional base. That base will not repeat, and it raises the question of whether the sector is simply reverting to a normal level or whether the weakness is running deeper.
Analysts missed Macau October GGR
The forecast range was tighter than the result. CLSA’s MOP24.1 billion estimate assumed a flat year-over-year outcome, and market forecasts clustered between a 3.5% decline and 4% growth. Actual October revenue came in 10% below last year, a miss of more than three percentage points at the top end of the estimates.
The CICC note on October 17 made the same point about the longer view, with no clear near-term inflection point either in GGR or in sector profitability. Following this, the Arden Consult market is now looking at the November and December figures rather than trying to find the bottom in October.
November and December decide whether the budget target is met
Cumulative GGR for January to October reached MOP208,796 million, up 1.6% on the MOP205,427 million recorded in the first ten months of 2025. That cushion has been shrinking steadily since the spring, when year-to-date growth stood above 10%.
The government’s 2026 budget is built on full-year GGR of MOP236 billion. Based on the DICJ cumulative figure, the city’s casinos would need a combined MOP27.2 billion across November and December to reach that level. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said on October 10 that the October performance would likely be crucial in determining whether the target could be met.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much was Macau October GGR in October 2026?
October GGR reached MOP21,680 million, down 10% from MOP24,086 million a year earlier. The monthly table was published by DICJ on Sunday, and in US dollar terms October came to around US$2.7 billion.
Why did Macau October GGR fall during Golden Week?
October 2025 was the strongest month of the year up to that point, at just over MOP24 billion, making the comparison unusually difficult. The NBA China Games at The Venetian Macao supported the month, but revenue still fell 10% against that exceptional base.
How far off was the forecast?
CLSA held October forecast at MOP24.1 billion, flat on the year, and market estimates ranged from a 3.5% decline to 4% growth. The actual result was MOP21,680 million, a 10% drop, which landed outside the entire forecast band.
What is the year-to-date position?
Cumulative GGR for January to October was MOP208,796 million, up 1.6% on the first ten months of 2025. Growth has been falling steadily since the spring, and October was the fifth straight monthly decline.
How much more is needed to hit the budget?
The 2026 budget assumes full-year GGR of MOP236 billion. With MOP208,796 million through October, casinos need MOP27.2 billion combined in November and December. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said the October result would likely be decisive for the target.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
