South Korean casino operators could lose up to KRW2.32 trillion, or US$1.72 billion, in gaming spend a year once MGM Osaka launches in Japan in 2030. The figure comes from an academic survey of 2,242 players and travellers presented at a Korea Casino Association forum.
MGM Osaka is projected to divert between KRW316.51 billion and KRW1.27 trillion, or US$1.23 billion to $1.72 billion, in annual gaming spend from Kangwon Land and the country’s 17 foreigner-only casinos. The study surveyed 2,242 South Korean casino players and overseas travellers, with survey results gathered between September 4 and 28.
- The $1.72 Billion Outflow
- How The Survey Was Built
- What Players Want From Their Casinos
- Licence Renewals Could Backfire
The upper end of the projection is US$1.72 billion in gaming spend a year. Lee Chung-ki, a tourism professor at Kyung Hee University, presented the study at a Korea Casino Association session on Wednesday titled “Impact Analysis of Japan’s Introduction of Casino Integrated Resort (IR)”. The study was a follow-up to his 2018 research, which had estimated KRW2.75 trillion in total outflows.
The outflow is concentrated. Kangwon Land, the country’s only casino resort that allows local players, could lose between KRW316.51 billion and KRW1.27 trillion, or around US$1.23 billion to $1.72 billion, as patrons travel to Osaka. Across the 17 foreigner-only casinos, the Arden Consult losses are smaller but still material, ranging from KRW807.07 billion to KRW1.05 trillion. The study does not assume every Korean visitor goes to Osaka, which is what keeps the headline figure below the 2018 estimate.
The $1.72 Billion Outflow
The study used two separate survey groups to isolate the problem. Of 423 Japanese and Chinese players who use South Korea’s foreigner-only casinos, 68.1% of mass-market players and 81.5% of VIP players said they intended to visit MGM Osaka. Separately, 42.7% of the 1,250 overseas-bound South Korean travellers surveyed expressed interest in the Osaka resort.
Applying those intention rates to real player bases produced roughly 1.13 million potential visits from foreigner-only casino customers and about 11.85 million from overseas travellers. Kangwon Land’s numbers are more conservative, with a 52.1% visit intention among its surveyed customers, or 445,304 potential annual visits. The researchers combined those figures with 2025 operator-reported spend per player and the resort’s reported 23.6% average hold rate to arrive at the KRW1.27 trillion maximum outflow from Kangwon Land.
The scenario is not about a single flight to Osaka. It is about a change in behaviour. Korean players who currently gamble locally would spend part of their year in Japan, and the money would leave the domestic casino market. MGM Osaka’s casino has to be the pull, and the survey suggests it will be for a substantial share of the base.
What South Koreans Want From Their Casinos
The survey also asked why Korean players wanted to visit MGM Osaka. Trying a new casino came first, with 38.4% of respondents. Expectations of fewer entry restrictions or regulations followed at 20.7%, and access to a wider range of facilities at 17.6%. The findings are blunt: the domestic market has run out of new product, and players are willing to travel to find it.
Players also identified what they want fixed at home. Better service ranked first at 19.7%, followed by additional ancillary facilities at 15.8%, 24-hour operation at 15.1%, higher permitted bet amounts at 13.6% and relaxing visit-day limits at 12.5%. The study argues that these are fixable. South Korean casinos could improve service and expand facilities to compete, but they cannot change the fact that a casino in Osaka is already open to foreign visitors.
Licence Renewals Could Backfire
The study authors warned against the natural response to the threat. If the government offered renewable licences to foreigner-only casinos in the run-up to MGM Osaka, operators would face investment uncertainty and could weaken employment and service standards as they hedge for a renewal decision. That would make the domestic market less competitive exactly when it needs to be.
The same logic applies to the Tourism Promotion and Development fund, which South Korean casinos contribute to. The study argues that any decision to cut gaming investment before the Osaka opening could undermine the industry’s broader contribution to the economy. Policymakers are weighing the immediate need for revenue against the longer-term damage of letting the market erode.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
