CBRE Equity Research predicts Macau casino operators will maintain high promotional spending in 2H 2026 to compete for premium customers, despite margin pressure and recent GGR declines.
Macau casino promotional spend is expected to rise in the second half of 2026, with commissions reaching US$1.73 billion by December. This increase aims to secure higher-spending VIPs despite a market-wide VIP hold averaging 2.6% in Q2 and intense competition for premium customers.
- CBRE Forecasts for 2H 2026
- VIP Hold Declines Impact GGR
- Margin Pressure and Operating Costs
- September Growth Expectations
Macau casino operators face a strategic imperative to boost promotional budgets in the second half of 2026. CBRE Equity Research analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh warn that the competitive environment remains fierce for premium customers. To counteract this, firms must increase commission spending to retain high-rollers. The brokerage forecasts market-wide commissions will climb from US$1.62 billion in Q3 to US$1.73 billion by year-end. This aggressive spending targets a stabilization of commissions as a percentage of gross gaming revenue (GGR).
The push for higher spend comes after a challenging Q2 where VIP performance lagged significantly. Total gaming commissions as a percentage of aggregate Macau GGR peaked at 20.9% in the second quarter. However, this figure masked underlying weakness in the VIP segment. Market-wide VIP hold averaged 2.6% in Q2, sitting 90 basis points below the trailing 12-month average of 3.5%. In absolute terms, commissions dropped sequentially to US$1.57 billion from a Q1 peak of US$1.65 billion.
CBRE Forecasts for 2H 2026
CBRE expects commission spending to pick up again during the remainder of the year. The institution projects aggregate commission dollars to increase as operators chase market share. Forecasts point to US$1.62 billion in the third quarter, representing 20.5% of GGR. By December 31, spending is anticipated to reach US$1.73 billion, or 20.6% of GGR. Analysts note that commission spending as a percentage of GGR should see some stabilisation. This assumes there is no significant volatility in casino hold. The elevated promotional environment reflects a desperate need to lock in high-value patrons.
VIP Hold Declines Impact GGR
The surge in commission percentages was partially an artifact of weak VIP performance. Low VIP hold weighed heavily on overall GGR calculations during the quarter. Analysts noted that the competitive environment remains intense for higher-spending premium customers. Operators are forced to spend more to maintain their Arden Consult position in this lucrative segment. According to CBRE, the market-wide VIP hold of 2.6% represents a significant drop from historical norms. This decline suggests that operators are struggling to extract value from their high-roller books. Without a recovery in VIP hold, the current promotional strategy may only delay inevitable margin compression.
Margin Pressure and Operating Costs
Macau concessionaires continue to face severe pressure on margins. Elevated customer reinvestment levels drive up costs for operators. Higher operating expenses compound the strain in what CBRE describes as a hyper-competitive operating environment. The brokerage’s note follows a lacklustre August, when market-wide GGR declined 1.2% year-on-year to MOP21.89 billion. Data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau confirms the downturn. While the immediate outlook is gloomy, the planned spending increase aims to reverse the trend. The strategy relies on volume and retention to offset the rising cost of acquiring new high-value players.
September Growth Expectations
Looking ahead to September, analysts expect a return to mid-single-digit growth. This projection considers a relative easier comparison against the previous year. Significant typhoon activity last year depressed figures, making the current baseline artificially low. The market anticipates a recovery as weather conditions normalize and promotional campaigns take effect. CBRE stated that the institution continues to see an elevated promotional environment in Macau. This sustained effort suggests that operators are willing to absorb short-term losses for long-term market share gains. The path forward involves balancing aggressive spending with the need for operational efficiency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does CBRE predict for Macau casino spending in 2026?
CBRE predicts Macau casino promotional spend will remain elevated in the second half of 2026. Commissions are forecast to reach US$1.73 billion by December, aiming to secure premium customers.
Why is VIP hold considered low in Q2 2026?
Market-wide VIP hold averaged 2.6% in Q2, which is 90 basis points below the 12-month average of 3.5%. This decline indicates weaker performance from high-spending customers.
How much did commissions drop in Q2?
Commissions declined sequentially to US$1.57 billion in Q2 from a Q1 peak of US$1.65 billion. This drop reflects the intense competition for premium players.
What was Macau’s GGR performance in August?
Market-wide GGR declined 1.2% year-on-year to MOP21.89 billion in August. This lacklustre performance prompted analysts to forecast a recovery in September.
Why are operators increasing commission spending?
Operators are increasing spend to compete for higher-spending premium customers in a hyper-competitive environment. The goal is to stabilize commission percentages as a share of GGR.
What factors are pressuring Macau casino margins?
Margins are under pressure from elevated customer reinvestment levels and higher operating expenses. The hyper-competitive operating environment exacerbates these cost challenges.
This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.
