Macau 3Q26 GGR Forecast Revised to 3-5% Decline

Kyle Kevin

iGaming Writer

Fact Checked

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is tracking a year-on-year decline of 3 percent to 5 percent in the third quarter, below HSBC’s existing forecast for 2 percent growth. The softer outlook comes amid weaker premium-player volumes in early September.

HSBC has revised its Macau 3Q26 GGR forecast downward after market data showed weaker performance in early September. The bank now expects GGR to fall between 3 percent and 5 percent year-on-year, below its original 2 percent growth projection. Both HSBC and UBS estimated Macau’s GGR at approximately MOP7.9 billion ($978 million) for the first 13 days of September. The month-to-date pace was broadly flat year-on-year but 14 percent below August on a daily average basis. UBS, in a separate report, said market consensus remained for September GGR growth of approximately 7 percent to 10 percent. The consensus range is more optimistic than the latest estimates from HSBC. ‘The slowdown appears driven by lower volume from premium players,’ UBS wrote in its September 14th report.

HSBC and UBS Diverge on September GGR

For September, HSBC expects GGR to reach MOP17.6 billion to MOP18.8 billion ($2.18 billion to $2.33 billion). That would represent a year-on-year movement of between a 4 percent decline and 3 percent growth. UBS took a more cautious view, noting that the month-to-date sequential decline was steeper than the average seasonal decrease recorded between 2015 and 2019. The consensus range is more optimistic than the latest estimates from HSBC. HSBC said the overall VIP win rate remained above normal at between 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent. The bank characterized September’s performance as ‘broadly in line with the usual seasonal pattern.’ It also noted that August provided a relatively low comparison base and that the year-on-year comparison should benefit from typhoon-related casino closures in September 2025. Mass-market daily revenue was estimated to have fallen between 12 percent and 15 percent month-on-month. VIP rolling volume declined by approximately 15 percent to 18 percent.

Mass-Market and VIP Volume Declines

Mass-market daily revenue was estimated to have fallen between 12 percent and 15 percent month-on-month. VIP rolling volume declined by approximately 15 percent to 18 percent. The slowdown appears driven by lower volume from premium players, according to UBS. HSBC said the overall VIP win rate remained above normal at between 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent. The bank characterized September’s performance as ‘broadly in line with the usual seasonal pattern.’ It also noted that August provided a relatively low comparison base and that the year-on-year comparison should benefit from typhoon-related casino closures in September 2025. UBS took a more cautious view, noting that the month-to-date sequential decline was steeper than the average seasonal decrease recorded between 2015 and 2019. The AGBrief platform tracks regional casino developments across Asia. Macau operators are closely monitoring these volume trends as they assess the impact on quarterly revenue targets.

September VIP Win Rate Above Normal

HSBC said the overall VIP win rate remained above normal at between 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent. The bank characterized September’s performance as ‘broadly in line with the usual seasonal pattern.’ It also noted that August provided a relatively low comparison base and that the year-on-year comparison should benefit from typhoon-related casino closures in September 2025. UBS took a more cautious view, noting that the month-to-date sequential decline was steeper than the average seasonal decrease recorded between 2015 and 2019. For September, HSBC expects GGR to reach MOP17.6 billion to MOP18.8 billion ($2.18 billion to $2.33 billion). That would represent a year-on-year movement of between a 4 percent decline and 3 percent growth. Both HSBC and UBS estimated Macau’s GGR at approximately MOP7.9 billion ($978 million) for the first 13 days of September.

Golden Week Hotel Pricing Trends

Separately, UBS’s forward booking survey showed higher hotel pricing for the October 1st–7th Golden Week. Among the 31 Macau hotels monitored by the bank, one fewer property was sold out than a year earlier, while average comparable room prices were 19 percent higher. This pricing pressure suggests demand softening despite seasonal events. Macau tourism sector urges easier Vietnam visa process to capture growth. The slower pace in September could affect Golden Week performance. UBS’s forward booking survey showed higher hotel pricing for the October 1st–7th Golden Week. Among the 31 Macau hotels monitored by the bank, one fewer property was sold out than a year earlier, while average comparable room prices were 19 percent higher.

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This article has been thoroughly researched and reviewed by the CasinoBait editorial team to ensure accuracy and relevance for Asian casino players.